South Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS66 KHNX 151730
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1030 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley
an Sierra Nevada Foothills through this evening. 30 to 60
percent chance for greater than 100 degrees in the Valley today;
20 to 50 percent chance for Foothill areas to exceed 100
degrees. 50 to 70 percent chance for Inyokern and Ridgecrest to
exceed 105 Today.

2. Breezy over the wind prone areas of the Eastern Mojave
Slopes as a 30 to 50 percent chance exist of wind gusts reaching
35 mph during this afternoon/early evening hours.

3. Low RH values 15 to 25 percent will stretch across much of
the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada with values 5 to 10
percent in the Mojave Desert early this week. RH will increase
over the region later in the week with cooling temperatures.

4. Showers and thunderstorms developing across the Sierra Nevada
Crest with a 30 to 60 percent chance from Thursday through
Saturday. Light precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of
an inch (< 0.10 inch) have the best chances of developing during
the event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current heat-wave coming to an end as Central California
(outside of the Mojave Desert) will see less and less coverage
of triple digit temperatures. While Ensemble Probability of
Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 103 degrees this afternoon is less
than 30%, PoE of reaching 100 degrees is generally above 50%.
Therefore, confidence is high that afternoon highs will reach
the triple digit mark one more time. Afterward, a disturbance
moving through the Pacific Northwest will help usher in cooler
coastal air and knock down the current heat-wave. Do not expect
precipitation with this disturbance, yet, winds will increase
as ensemble PoE of wind gusts above 35 mph sits at 30% to 50%
over the wind prone areas. Otherwise, we will see a breezy
afternoon as winds gusts to 15 mph over the Interstate-5
corridor and across Eastern Kern County. Once the disturbance
passes on Wednesday, winds will decrease and temperature will
remain at near seasonal normal levels.

Latest ensemble temperature analysis is showing PoE struggling
to rise above 25% for much of the periodexcept for Sunday.
Therefore, we will see afternoon highs reaching into the mid-
upper 90s (near normal) for the period. Due to a flat blocking
pattern, the lack of amplification will allow disturbances to
ride over the ridge and maintain a cooler pattern.

An area of weakness (part of the blocking pattern) will sit over
Baja California and begin drawing up monsoonal moisture. While
the onshore flow of today and Wednesday will keep higher precip-
water at-bay, ensembles flow aloft does show a northerly
progression later in the week. Ensemble instability and
Probability of Thunder is very low which would translate into
only seeing clouds over the Sierra Crest today and Wednesday.
Precipitation is very unlikely. By Thursday, the ridge builds
and the area of weakness drifts north. This change will open the
door for a northward surge of Monsoonal moisture as higher
precip-water spreads well over the region. Ensemble Probability
of Measurable Precipitation (PoP) lights-up the Sierra Nevada
Crest on Thursday (30%-50%) with light precipitation, they
increase the coverage and percentages on Friday as PoP sits at
(40%-60%). These percentages represent accumulations less than
a tenth of an inch (0.01 inch) as percentages for a wetting rain
(0.10 inch) is less than 20% for both days. Based on the
coverage, will monitor for any fire weather threats to the area.
Saturday shows unchanging conditions as light precipitation
will be confined to the high Sierra. By Sunday, another weak
disturbance moving through the north will turn off our moisture
source and start another drying trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update:

Surface wind gusts G35KT over the Coastal Range and Eastern Kern
County near KMHV, KIYK will have a 30%-50% chance of developing
from 22Z today through 06Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central
California Interior.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ300>322-324-
325-332.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina/BSO

weather.gov/hanford