South Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

760
FXUS66 KHNX 310513
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1013 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

.UPDATE...
Aviation Section Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley,
Kern River Valley, lower Sierra Foothills, and West Side Hills
valid from 11 AM Friday through 7 AM Sunday.

2. Widespread Moderate to Major Heat Risk is expected across
the lower elevations of the region.

3. A disturbance over the weekend will allow for the development
of strong winds over the mountains and across the Eastern Mojave
Slopes of the Kern County Mountains early next week.

4. Mountain thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with
a potential for widespread mountain storms on Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warming trend continues across the West as widespread triple
digit temperatures expected over the San Joaquin Valley.
Conditions will remain hot and dry today as moisture surges
northward over the next few days. While triple digit heat will
continue on Saturday, the moisture surge will allow for
increasing convection over the district and showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the area ahead of the next
disturbance late in the weekend. Dry and comfortable conditions
expected in the wake of the disturbance early next week before
the start of the next warming trend into the latter part of the
week.

Ensemble Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 90 degrees
will see a significant jump to near 100% with the focus on to
the percentages of reaching 100 degrees. PoE of reaching 100
degrees on Today sits between 45% and 85% with areas from Fresno
County southward has the higher end of the probabilities. 105
degrees will be more of a challenge today as PoE is mostly less
than 20%. On the other-hand, Saturdays PoE of 105 degrees show
percentages between 30% and 50% with the higher end percentages
on the west-side and south-end of the valley. Therefore,
confidence remains high that heat advisory criteria will be met
on Saturday.

Ensemble mean upper-air analysis is showing another disturbance
crossing the region as the heat-wave comes to an end on Sunday
and winds increase over the favored locations. While westerly
winds will increase on Sunday, PoE of wind gusts reaching 35 mph
is only 30%-35% over the favored locations. Therefore, the
winds will help limit the heat and the northwesterly extension
of the moisture plume into the area. Will see expect convection
on Sunday over the Sierra Nevada as Probability of Thunder sits
around 20%. Fire Weather is a concern, yet the precipitation
during the weekend will lessen the threat.

Monday will be a transition day as temperatures approach normal
values and the region dries out. PoE or reaching 95 degrees will
steadily rise during the week and reach percentages of 40% to
75% by next Friday.

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the
Central California Interior.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>321-324-332.
&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation....BSO/JPK

weather.gov/hanford